Current Trade Set-Ups... for Potential Position Trades

Weekly top Set-Ups...

Aud/Usd - Pending SHORT
Current C.O.T. hints more gains ahead. I will be watching for signs of weakness in current Bullish momentum to Sell the pair.
Preferred Sell Zone - close to 1.0680/1.07
(see weekly chart below)

Weekly Aussie

Eur/Usd - Flat but Waiting to Sell much higher
Current C.O.T. hints bearish momentum is not over yet. I will be watching the Longterm Trend Line Support close to 1.20 for confirmation of a temporary bottom.
I remain broadly bearish but risk/reward considerations argue against selling at current levels.
Preferred Sell Zone - close to Declining Wedge Resistance.
(see weekly chart below)

Weekly Euro

Aud/Cad - Pending Short
My order to Sell the pair earlier this month at 1.06 failed to get triggered as price reversed from just under that figure. The pair is accelerating lower and I will continue to hunt for short.
Preferred Sell Zone - near 1.05 previous Support now turned Resistance.
(see weekly chart below)

Weekly Aud/Cad

Preliminary Outlook for the Week ahead

based on Commitment of Retail Traders Positioning, this is what the week ahead could be like...
expect a little surprise.

Aussie - Very Bullish
Euro - Very Bearish (Take Note** Retail Traders are massively Long)
Canadian $ - Very Bullish
Sterling - Bullish
Swiss Franc - Flat
Japanese Yen - Slightly Bullish

Long Term / Mid Term Outlook
What's worth mentioning though is that, the Retail Traders have switched to Long Euro over the past few days, which in my books, is a Bearish signal.
I still expect a test of Long Term Support (close to 1.20) before Bulls take control for a correction towards 1.30/1.40)
(see early 11th August Eur/Usd Chart in previous post, titled, Euro... Bull is approaching)
http://fxwavetrader.blogspot.sg/2012/08/euro-bull-is-approaching.html

Aud/Cad Trade Set-Up...

update from late July set-up...
my Sell order for Aud/Cad @ 1.06 almost got triggered earlier this month as price spiked up to descending trend line resistance near that level but did not quite hit my order.
will be making a second attempt to sell close to previous support now turned resisitance... (see chart below)

Aud/Cad Daily

Markets show signs of Complacency...

For Long Term Traders, The FX markets are once again showing signs of complacency.
The VIX (Volatility Index) has once again dipped to it lowest levels.
This is a sign of an impending Reversal.

I am not saying that we will be witnessing an immediate reversal but nevertheless, It is wise not to be complacent...

The VIX Weekly

Should this reversal pan out in the following weeks/months, then a general Risk OFF scenario is in-line with my books. Look at previous posts on Euro, Aussie and the S&P500 Index...

Euro... Bull is approaching

The Euro will need another low, possibly towards the 2005 Trend Support at 1.20 area. This would possibly complete a 5wave Impulse (minor c wave) of the larger C wave correction (as shown in weekly chart below).
A confluence of Support near that area could be a start of a Bullish rally...
but I will cross that bridge when I get there.

For now I am standing aside...

Aussie: Pending Short

Current Bullish momentum could carry the Aussie a little higher before the larger Bearish Trend takes over.
Furthermore, the highs in price since the June rally have failed to create higher highs in momentum(RSI), strengthening my Longterm Bearish Outlook.
Key Resistance to watch, 1.0628, 1.0671 & 1.0815

...Correlation to S&P500 Index
Likewise, a move slightly higher from where we are now is to be expected before the Larger Risk Off Environment takes over.
Key Resistance: 1,422 / 1,425

C.O.T. suggests Risk On Environment...

Preliminary Bias for the Upcoming Trading Week...

Aussie: Bullish
Euro: Very Bullish
Pound: Bullish
Loonie: Very Bullish

Yen: Bearish
Franc: Flat

Have a good weekend... :)

Quick Notes for the Week ahead...

from an Elliott Wave perspective...
When dealing with a complex correction, it is best to let others do the trading while you sit back and watch. This is what I have been doing recently with my eyes fixed on the S&P 500 index.

Am not gonna figure out tops and bottoms, there are just too many possibilities. The best way to deal with current Price Action, is to wait for a clear impulse move in one direction and then trade on the retracement.

Based on Speculative Positioning, for now, I am Bullish on Aussie & Euro, Flat for the Loonie & Sterling and Bearish on Swiss Franc.
Technically though, I am watching for a clear impulse to get in on the retracement...

Have a good week ahead...