Eur/Usd Price Action for May...

yet to be confirmed but just sharing what I've been mulling over...
if I shut off all the noise in the market and just look at May 2012 price action,
this is what it looks like... to me.

Eur/Usd 4Hourly Chart

a new Low, probably ahead of 1.24 ( wave 5)and then an ABC move Up is to be expected soon.
take note of GAP (if you look closely, it is yet to be closed) the GAP area would be a good sell zone perhaps?

Aud/Nzd Wave Count...

if wave 1 is the shortest and wave 3 is never the shortest, then check this out...
we could be looking at a huge wave down.
preferred strategy - sell close to 1.31

Aud/Nzd Daily chart

think I may have a confidant count now
would welcome any alternate wave count

Sentiment vs Patience

Hello everybody it is Friday. Since my trade rules does not allow me to hunt for a trade position on a Friday, I would like to share my thoughts while I do my Charts Analysis...
The Trend is truly our Friend but we are often faced with a dilemma. Everybody does Market Analysis but Trader Analysis is often overlooked.

What type of a Trader are You?

It is basic human nature to follow the herd and a great example would be current financial market situation. Excitement and the window of opportunity makes traders jump into a trade to "seize the moment". It is absolutely true that the Trend is your Friend, but there are minor trends within a major trend and the window of opportunity can sometimes create a blind spot in the trend that you are watching. Not wanting to loose out, may often make you do things that you might later, feel bad about.

Hence the dilemma, to follow Sentiment or to wait Patiently to enter at a better price?
Which then creates another set of anxiety... while you wait, you wonder,... would this moment that I have been waiting for patiently, ever materialize? The cycle never ends....

... and then, there are another group of traders who are called the Contrarians. These are the counter trend traders who pick up bargains during bearish sentiments or dump assets during bullish sentiments. Though the Contrarian mind set is a little subjective, in my opinion. It all depends on which time frame you normally trade in and how long you normally hold your open positions. Your account size may influence your trading style.

I am still patiently waiting for my moment... What about YOU ?
What type of a Trader are YOU ?


Happy Friday Traders!

Waiting to Fade Rallies...

S&P 500: 1,340 is Support for now, below that, 1,290 should provide a second layer of Support. I expect 1,340 to hold, as there is confluence of support there in the form of the, Lower Bollinger Band, 23.6 Fibo of the entire rally since Oct’2011, former Range Support and Ichimoku Cloud Support.
A Daily Close below 1,340 over the coming sessions could put the focus on 1,290, which happens to be the Wave 1 Top. (meaning Wave 4 cannot overlap this level). Previous Downtrend Resistance Trend line now turned possible Support also happens to be in that price vicinity. But this level is still a long way to go and may possibly take a month to get there. For now, lets just see how price action plays out as we approach the 1,340.

Shanghai Composite: Going back a little further, since Apr’2011 the index has been in a steady downtrend from the 3,040 level. With that in mind, current price action is fast approaching the 38.2 Fibo of the entire rally down from 3,040 to 2,130. Watch 2,480/2,500 zone for Resistance. Above that zone the 2,600/2,650 level could provide a second layer of Resistance which happens to be the 50% Fibo of the downtrend from Apr’2011 and the current larger trend Channel Resistance. The second layer of Resistance is still a long way to go. Stay focused on 2,500 for now.

Bottom Line: close to 90% of Traders are Bearish. That itself is a Bullish sign. We may see some upwards correction in Risky assets for the near term and perhaps even the mid term. I will not chase these Risk Off moves but instead, will wait to Sell on Rallies towards Key Resistance. Based on my Seasonal Chart studies, declines made in May are usually reversed in June. Therefore if you haven’t secured a good price for your shorts yet, don’t worry, it is better to Sell in June.

Currency Watch List

Aud/Usd: I expect this pair to follow the Shanghai Composite closely.
Eur/Usd: I expect this pair to follow the S&P500 closely.
Gbp/Usd: this pair is expected to mimic the Eur/Usd


Eur/Chf: I expect the pair to keep retesting the floor unless the SNB does
something new.
Usd/Jpy: the threat of Intervention is always there.